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Pfizer’s 2024 Sales Forecast for COVID-19 Vaccine and Treatment Falls Short, Shares Decline

by Anna

Pfizer’s forecast for the sales of its COVID-19 vaccine (Comirnaty) and treatment (Paxlovid) in 2024 is $8 billion, falling over $5 billion short of the Wall Street consensus, according to an initial forecast released by the company. Analysts had expected combined sales of nearly $14 billion, with Comirnaty contributing $8.34 billion and Paxlovid $5.55 billion. Both products generated over $56 billion in sales in the previous year, with expectations of a decline in demand and a switch to selling through the commercial market.

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In the third quarter, Pfizer reported a loss of more than $2 billion, citing a significant decline in sales of COVID-19 products. Sales of Paxlovid and Comirnaty dropped 97% and 70%, respectively, during the quarter. The transition to a commercial market requires the company to handle distribution to drugstores, negotiate with pharmacy benefit managers, and manage relationships with other payers.

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Pfizer warned in October that sales of the vaccine and treatment were weaker than expected. The company’s full-year revenue forecast for 2024 is between $58.5 billion and $61.5 billion, falling short of the $62.7 billion expected by Wall Street analysts. Additionally, Pfizer’s profit expectations for 2024 are below market projections, with per-share earnings expected to be between $2.05 and $2.25, compared to Wall Street’s projection of around $3.17 per share.

In response to the forecast, Pfizer’s shares declined nearly 7% in premarket trading, reflecting concerns about the company’s performance and the evolving landscape for COVID-19 products. The challenges include shifting market dynamics, changing demand patterns, and the ongoing impact of the pandemic on global health strategies.

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